Non-Pool
Topic: Derren Brown

Cant believe last nights "illusion" hasnt been mentioned here...........anyone got any theories as to how he did it?

magic

what did he do? was going to watch it but fell asleep!

The trick would've been far more convincing, in my opinion, with a simple blackboard (with the numbers covered) to display his prediction rather than the elaborate plinthe with the balls on. So I think what the balls displayed could be altered. The cable running to the tv looked huge too, as if to say 'this is plugged in, nothing else is'. I also don't buy this 'The BBC has the right to announce the numbers first so I can't show my prediction'...surely him giving his prediction isn't the same as announcing the result?

FIRSTLY - anyone who sat at home thinking wow isnt he fantastic needs to re think their entire life..

Its all complete BS, you only had to listen to the best supporting actors voice he put on in the build up to the draw and then the hand over the mouth...

cringeable really !

ALSO - anyone called DERREN... For FXXXS sake that has to be in the top 3 perviest sickest christian names of all time...

Only guy i know called derren works at the local BP station round my way and he should be tagged up with a curfew, baring in mind he's in his mid 40's and uses phrases like PANTS, STEP INTO MY OROPHIS and my personal favourite EX QUEEZE ME !!!!

DB is not my fav....

lol gathered that mate. Cant see it being anything to do with the numbers on the balls being superimposed by a computer as his show on fri night explaining how he did it is 1 hour long. Maybe the left hand side of the screen was frozen and we just didnt realise. The bit where he turns the plinth could be recorded which is why he has been working on it for a year? Lol

hahaaha jack of clubs

Hustler

It looks like we will be agreeing to disagree on this one. DB is one of my favourites. He's also one of life's good guys.

Here's how I, as a magician, saw it...

I had seen people performing Lottery Predictions in the past before. A prediction would be locked in an envelope, locked in a box and so forth before being given to someone to guard for a few days. There was always a way of working out how it was done. That was until Derren tackled it.

I tuned in not knowing what to expect, but knowing that it was likely to be good. When he walked into the empty studio towards the stand, I was still looking for some sort of cover. To my eyes, nothing of the sort occurred. He watched the draw, along with the rest of us, while appearing to be nervous of the outcome. I admit that I was completely taken in by it. But then, I wasn't watching this for any potential Oscar winning performances. Admittedly, I was watching it as a magician - watching for any clues to the potential method. There was not a single clue. I sat, stunned, looking at the TV screen as he turned the pedestal round to show that the numbers matched.

Was it a split screen? To my mind, NO. The single shot that was used was being done with a hand-held camera, making the image that little bit unsteady to make the split screen possibility a non-runner. Also, if he used split screen, he would've been guilty of using camera/video trickery when performing - something we magicians look down upon a great deal.

A brilliant piece of mentalism/mental magic that fooled the smeg out of me. Actually, it fooled all my friends too (except, of course, the ones that work on the show - and they're not talking!). It was very amusing to see Facebook and Twitter light up with various magicians calling on each other to go on Skype so they could try to come up with some sort of theory.

As for me, I still don't have a theory or an idea how he did - or could have done - this prediction. I was fooled so badly that I felt like a norman (non-magician) person and I love being fooled that badly!

Now, the question remains. What will he tell us tonight? Looks like we'll need to tune in to find out!

Best wishes

thecardman



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The Cardman's Blog

the left hand side freezing makes sense but i did wonder why he would take an hour to explain that! he'll not doubt build it up for a while and i'm sure they'll show wed nights programme again, cant wait!

Derren is absolutely fantastic at what he does. I saw him at one of his shows a few years back and it is amazing what he can do.

Tonight's show should be interesting, I cannot see any other possible explanation other than it is something to do with those balls lol.

And don't forget the 30 or so commercials before the reveal!
55 mins worth would do it, I think!

IMO, the balls were rigged to able to display any numbers (ie lighting or digital display made to look like normal balls).

I think the show tonight will also be a trick, with derren probably trying to claim mathematical/magic skills, where its just a simple scam.

........not expecting to find out the truth at 9pm!

Love this kind of stuff!

When he's in front of the camera, the camera shaking movement doesn't look natural, almost as if it was filmed on a tripod and then the broadcast image was being shaken around to make it look like someone was holding it. You'd need a static image to be able to split screen it I'd imagine.

This makes me think that the first part with him walking isn't live. The only live bit is when he's in front of the screen after the view switches back to the original camera.

It would then be easy to split the screen showing a static plinth on the left, so people could be walking across putting the real balls in place on the plinth. We'd only see the broadcast static image on the left of the screen.

If camera tricks weren't involved then he wouldn't need two cameras, surely? Just film everything in a single shot.

Anyway, it's bloody good!

Still not convinced about his trick at the races where he won money with a losing ticket though...

Surely he's not filmed every single combination of balls? 14 million combinations?

OK, I've got it. Or at least I think I have.

Using a random lottery number generator, I just did over 200 random draws. The numbers spread (lowest to highest) ranged from 17 to 49. Taking this as a sample, and also considering the fact I've looked at a shitload of lottery results and seen similar results, I have come to the conclusion that you would have to be really unlucky to come across a one-off spread where the numbers all fell within a 16 number spread.

If you take all these perms, and forget them for the time being, you have a drastically reduced number of perms to consider. Brown has simply decided on a spread of numbers which gives him the highest practicable number of perms to cover in terms of takes in a year.

The TV being turned off was the key for me, there is then a little jump, and it would make sense that the pre-recorded clips were filmed witha blank TV rather than attempt somehow to keep the TV looking realistic. The TV being on to start with is the hook to make you think the whole clip is live. In all actuality, the duration of time between the TV going off and the hurried "Goodbye" was 44 seconds. Brown also has bags under his eyes in the one closeup we see of him after the TV goes off, which he does not at the beginning of the whole clip. So, the TV going off was the cue to start the recorded clip.

The pad he writes the numbers on is another prop meant to distract you from the TV being turned off, it is done in passing with as little emphasis as possible.

I believe that the "hand over the mouth" routine while the draw was being done was in order for Brown to speak into a sleeve mic, probably to a technician who was getting ready to switch from 'live' to recorded video, and needed the numbers as quickly as possible in order to select the right clip and make the switch as seamless as possible.

I'm working on the numbers and I bet we'll find out that a spread of either 16 or 18 is required to reduce the number of perms to something like 1 milliion. This would mean that Brown was banking on something not happening on this one occasion that had never happened before, ie- the spread of numbers being lower than 16, or 18. And the beauty of the whole scheme was that if the numbers DID by some miracle come out 1,2,3,4,5,6, since he had only ruled out perms of numbers within a spread of 16 or 18 (somewhere round there, I'd guess), he'd still have video clips to select from which would include combinations of 5 of those numbers plus one other (1,2,3,4,5,(39), or (12),21,25,28,31,35, for example)... This way, he'd be odds on to get 6, but even if he didn't he was guaranteed 5. All he needed was for the spread of numbers to be greater than the number he selected, and he'd look a genius. If he missed, well, five would still be a great effort, and that would be the minimum. He also didn't promise to pick them all, but he did make reference to being certain of getting five.

To put it in perspective, with a projected spread of 16, which is about reasonable I would think (and lower than any spread of Lottery numbers I could find), if any number lower than 17 came out, then any other number over 33 coming out would guarantee him getting 6 out of 6. If a number lower than 10 comes out, he only needs one number higher than 25.... He'd be pretty unlucky not to get 6, when you look at it that way.

I may not be exactly right with the system I've chosen to pick the perms which he'd use, but the theory holds true, you can definitely do a number a the devils playground of a lot lower than 13.9 million takes and guarantee 5, and pretty much guarantee 6, and I'd guess that's what he's done.

If he recorded 1,000,000 perms, at one minute per clip (on average including setting up time, number/ball changes, etc) it would take him pretty darn close to a year, if he did 8 hours per day 5 days a week,if my maths are right. This would tally with the "year of my life" that he mentions.

The camera wobbles all the way through, uncharacteristically for a pro cameraman, because it makes the transition from live to pre-recorded harder to spot.

He scribbles on a pad before turning the TV off, but you don't see what is written on that pad until the TV is off, ie- until it has been switched to the pre recorded video.

The pad is part of the hook to make you think it's all live. The TV makes you think it is, and he writes on the pad while the TV is on... then he turns the TV off, but you can still see the pad... they overlap, and the focus is changed effortlessly from the TV to the pad... it's a subliminal way of making you believe the whole thing is seamless and live.

I'd bet the mentions in his 'spoiler' show the fact he keeps the pad in front of the TV while the draw is being done. Didn't that strike you as strange? He is trying to show you footage of something, but has a big long pad sticking out in front of the screen? It's just to make sure you focus on the pad when the TV is off.

Upon further analysis, even the way in which Brown does the last 45 seconds or so seems a bit rehearsed... there is a certain robotic tone in his voice which isn't there usually.

I became really certain of the switch from one to the other because of the hurried nature of the farewell message. Since the guy had just predicted 6 Lottery numbers and he had already made clear he had a 10 minute slot on C4, it seemed weird that suddenly he couldn't wait to get off camera. This made me think of the time it takes to pre-record, and the time per clip shot, and the accumulation of it over a year. Considering Channel 4 gave him all 5 of their channels, they wouldn't cut short his 10 minute slot, so I knew something was up.

Er... I think that's it. I've been trying to work it out for hours now, think I pretty much covered everything.

Blimey.... I am off to lie down

Think that's nailed it.

I wonder if he's put in any blatant continuity mistakes in there to show off! Like changing cufflinks or something - things that he knows we won't notice.

Or I bet it's something really simple and he knew we'd focus too hard on the complicated methods!

Here's a Tweet from Derren's Twitter this morning...

"Morning. Speculation this morning fantastic. Lasers, split screens, tiny LED readouts in the balls. I am loving today. Hope you are well."

Oh and for those of you saying "but they'll only do it over the last few minutes" - of course they will! We've been pulling stuff like this for years. David Copperfield, Doug Henning (RIP) and David Blaine are 3 that have done this sort of thing - "at the end of tonight's show, I am going to ". It's there to hold the viewers for the whole show.

Well, let's switch on and see what he has to say.

Happy viewing.

Best wishes

thecardman

Hmmm

1. The 24 volunteers definitely didn't predict the numbers.
2. Derren Brown definitely didn't fix the machine.
3. It must have been camera trickery.

Well, i didn't apy attention to it much at all as i was playing a game, will need to give it a proper watch again. What you think of it cardman?